"Before a property can be annexed into the City and developed, a property owner must prepare a master plan for development of the specific property proposed for annexation."
That sentence comes from the City of McMinnville's own page for the Southwest Area Plan. It helps explain why the town's biggest block of future housing land is still in the planning stage in October 2026.
The southwest area covers about 640 acres, roughly a square mile. It is the largest single piece McMinnville added to its urban growth boundary in 2020. If you're comparing Willamette Valley towns and you've heard "McMinnville is growing," that's true on paper. The new homes you can actually tour, though, are coming from somewhere else. That changes how a buyer should read the market right now.
The steps between a boundary line and a front door
Adding land to a growth boundary makes it eligible for city development someday. It does not make it buildable. Here is the sequence the southwest land still has to go through, based on the city's published process:
- Finish the area plan. In September 2026, the Project Advisory Committee reviewed a draft refined preferred concept, traffic analysis, and draft goals and policies. The city has scheduled December 12, 2026 as a public event to review the draft Southwest Area Plan.
- Each landowner prepares a master plan for their specific property, consistent with the adopted area plan.
- Negotiate an annexation agreement. The City Council adopted Ordinance No. 5178, its Natural Hazards Inventory and Management Program. For land in the growth boundary but outside city limits, that program applies upon annexation and gets handled through the annexation agreement.
- Address the natural resources program. A separate program covering riparian areas, significant tree groves, and scenic viewpoints, Docket G 2-23, went through a Planning Commission hearing on April 2, 2026. It is headed to City Council and would also be handled through annexation agreements.
Only after all of that does a subdivision application reach the stage where lots, streets, and builders come into the picture. The city hasn't published a date for when the first southwest homes might break ground, and nothing in the public record lets anyone predict one.
A 185-home cushion, counted in acres
In February 2026, the city adopted Ordinance No. 5170. Its supporting analysis shows how tight the long-range math is. McMinnville expects to need 4,284 homes on buildable land for the 2021 to 2041 period. After a series of land-efficiency changes, it has capacity for 4,469. The difference is a surplus of 185 units.
Most of that added capacity came from reassigning land in the expansion areas. The city cut the acreage it had set aside for parks by 127 acres, public and institutional uses by 44 acres, and school sites by 33 acres. That moved 204 acres toward housing, which the analysis counts at an assumed 5.46 homes per acre. It also states that "the next step for the City will be to develop area plans" for those areas.
So the surplus describes land that could hold homes once it is planned, annexed, and subdivided. For a buyer in 2026, it says the city has a plan for the coming decades. It says little about what's for sale this winter.
Where the new for-sale homes are coming from
The new-construction neighborhood buyers can tour today sits on land the city approved long before the 2020 expansion work wrapped up.
Holt Homes' Hillcrest covers about 106 acres between the westerly ends of SW 2nd Street and NW Horizon Drive, extending to the northwest. It's zoned R-2 with a Planned Development overlay. In 2024, Holt applied to amend the existing planned development approval for the "remaining undeveloped phases" of the property. The City Council approved those changes, Docket PDA 1-24 and S 3-24, on December 18, 2024.
The amendment set the details a buyer will feel on the ground:
- 392 remaining residential lots, down from 394
- Average lot size of 7,960 square feet, with a 5,000-square-foot minimum through lot size averaging
- About 13 acres of tracts for open space, recreation, and pedestrian connections, plus about 1.6 acres for stormwater
- Reduced setbacks, along with approval to remove trees as needed for the development plan
As of October 1, 2026, Holt's community page lists Hillcrest as "Now Selling," with a by-appointment information center at 404 NW Valley's Edge St. We didn't find published prices, so any comparison with resale homes has to start from current builder pricing at the time you ask.
Elsewhere, Kamm Estates is a proposed nine-lot subdivision at 1465 and 1525 SW Cypress Lane, Docket ZC 2-24 and S 2-24. Its Planning Commission hearing was continued from March 19 to April 2, 2026, and the public record we reviewed doesn't show the final outcome.
Most of the 2026 pipeline is rental
Look at the larger projects moving through McMinnville this year and a pattern shows up. Most of them are apartments.
| Project | Location | Homes | Status as of early October 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Village | 2450 SE Stratus Ave | 175 one- to three-bedroom homes for households at 30% to 60% AMI | Open and leasing |
| Armonía Apartments | 544 NE 2nd St | 72 units, four stories | Council rejected appeal 4–1 on Aug. 25; construction targeted for early fall 2026, lease-up winter 2027 |
| SW McMinnville Housing and Childcare Community | 1950 SW 2nd St | 68 homes at 60% AMI | Planning Commission hearing Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NE McDonald Lane site | West side of NE McDonald Ln | 75 market-rate apartments shown in concept drafts | Zone change ordinance scheduled for second reading Oct. 13, 2026 |
Bienestar Oregon is the applicant for Armonía, on property owned by McMinnville Cooperative Ministries. The SW 2nd Street project is led by Farmworker Housing Development Corporation with the Willamette Valley Wine Foundation, on Salvation Army property.
Added up, these projects add hundreds of rental homes to town. They don't add homes to the for-sale pool that a first-time buyer or downsizer is shopping in.
Small infill sites move on a different clock
The McDonald Lane parcel shows why. It's a 3.17-acre "island" of county land across from Grandhaven Elementary. The applicants are the Yamhill Soil and Water Conservation District and developer Mac Multi LLC, and they have an annexation agreement with the city that depends on approval of a zone change to high-density R-4.
According to Scott Unger's September 15, 2026 reporting in the News-Register, neighbors have opposed the plan since a community meeting in December 2025. Resident Patrick Evans told the paper that building permit data from 2022 through June 2026 put the city two years ahead of its housing needs projections, with a surplus of 155 units. The developers point to the city's Housing Needs Analysis, which calls for 1,500 additional multifamily units by 2041.
The process detail is what matters for a buyer comparing timelines. City staff told the paper that if a future use is permitted outright in R-4 and meets standard density, staff review the development plan without another Planning Commission or City Council hearing. The September 22 council agenda listed Ordinance No. 5182 for a first reading with a possible second reading, and the October 13 agenda schedules the second reading. The applicant extended the decision deadline to October 30, so the outcome isn't settled yet.
Infill parcels already surrounded by the city can be settled in a matter of months, one council vote at a time. The southwest square mile has to go through an area plan, master plans, and annexation agreements first.
What this means for resale buyers right now
New for-sale supply is running on a long timeline, so you might expect the resale market to feel tight. RMLS's August 2026 numbers for Yamhill County point the other way. The county row covers more than McMinnville, including Newberg, so read it as the regional backdrop rather than a city-only snapshot.
In August 2026, Yamhill County had 486 active residential listings against 97 closed sales. Pending sales fell 12.6% from August 2025, and total market time averaged 74 days. RMLS calculates inventory by dividing active listings by that month's closed sales, counting proposed and under-construction properties. On that formula, Yamhill County was sitting at about 5.0 months of inventory. The Portland Metro figure was 3.8 months, with 57 days of total market time.
Prices have held steady through the slowdown. The county's year-to-date median sale price through August 2026 was $480,000, and the rolling 12-month average sale price was up 2.0% from the prior 12 months.
Put that together and the picture for a McMinnville buyer this fall is clear. Waiting for the expansion land to bring new choices means waiting on a process with no published finish date. Resale homes, meanwhile, are taking longer to go under contract than they do in the metro, which leaves room for inspections, repair requests, and a closing date that works with your current lease or home sale. If you're weighing a Hillcrest build against an existing home, these questions are a good place to start:
- What is the builder's current price and completion timeline, and how does that line up with your move date?
- How do lot sizes near Hillcrest's 7,960-square-foot average compare with established neighborhoods in your price range?
- How long have comparable resale homes been sitting, and what has that meant for terms and concessions?
If you'd like to compare a new Hillcrest home with the resale options across town, or you're trying to time a sale and a purchase this winter, I'll gladly pull the current numbers and walk through them with you. Reach out to Stacey McGhehey and let's look at what's actually available now. Let's Connect. Smile! Relax! Enjoy!
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
